Nickel Pig Iron Prices Slightly Increase as Supply and Demand Divergence Continues [SMM Nickel Morning Brief]

February 20 Morning Meeting Notes

Refined Nickel:

SMM February 19 News: Spot Premiums: The mainstream spot premium quotation range for Jinchuan No. 1 nickel was 2,000-2,100 yuan/mt, with an average premium of 2,050 yuan/mt, down 50 yuan from the previous trading day. The premium/discount quotation range for Russian nickel was -100 to 100 yuan/mt, remaining on par with the past two trading days. Futures: Nickel prices briefly surged today but then fluctuated downward, declining 0.22% to a low of 123,650 yuan/mt. Regarding spot premiums, Jinchuan nickel's premium fell by 50 yuan compared to yesterday, mainly due to the overall low market trading activity and insufficient downstream end-use demand. From a technical perspective, the SHFE nickel 2503 contract opened lower and trended downward in the morning session, maintaining a rangebound trend. Current prices have returned to the lower end of the fluctuation range since November, but there is some technical support below, with market sentiment leaning cautious. Although macro policy expectations provide some support to the market, nickel prices remain constrained by fundamentals, particularly the increase in LME nickel inventory and seasonal demand weakness. Regarding the price spread with nickel sulphate: Today, nickel briquette prices ranged from 123,350 to 123,700 yuan/mt, with an average price of 123,525 yuan/mt, up 250 yuan/mt from the previous trading day's spot price. Nickel sulphate remains at a discount to refined nickel. Nickel Ore:

Supply side, Indonesia has approved 207 RKAB quotas, with APNI data indicating that the 2025 RKAB approved quota is 298 million wmt. In January, most mines passed SIMBARA system reviews, and shipments proceeded normally. On the demand side, the temporary quotas issued in Q4 2024 and reduced premiums have left downstream smelters with about one month of raw material inventory. From a supply-demand perspective, domestic trade ore supply in Indonesia is relatively ample, with increased market circulation. Compared to the same period early last year, the supply looseness is more pronounced. However, as downstream smelters consume their inventories, SMM expects concentrated restocking after the Chinese New Year. Regarding market transactions: Upstream and downstream negotiations were relatively active this month, with market sentiment significantly improving compared to the previous week. In January, mainstream transaction premiums for mid-to-high-grade Indonesian nickel ore were concentrated at $15-17, rising to $17-18 in early February, with some transactions exceeding $20 premiums. SMM expects Indonesian nickel ore prices to fluctuate upward in the future.

Nickel Sulphate:

February 19, the SMM battery-grade nickel sulphate index price was 26,588 yuan/mt, with a quotation range of 26,400-27,060 yuan/mt, and the average price remained flat compared to yesterday. On the cost side, LME nickel prices have shown a fluctuating trend recently. On the demand side, precursor plants have mostly completed restocking, though some enterprises still have restocking needs for February. On the supply side, some nickel salt smelters have not yet resumed production, and current smelter quotations are basically flat compared to last week, with spot order transactions remaining sluggish. Comprehensive analysis suggests that, considering the traditional procurement period has not yet arrived and market activity is relatively low, prices are expected to remain stable this week.

Nickel Pig Iron:

February 19 News: SMM 8-12% high-grade NPI average price was 967.5 yuan/mtu (ex-factory, tax included), up 0.5 yuan/mtu from the previous working day. On the supply side, domestically, Philippine nickel ore prices are expected to rise, pushing up costs for domestic smelters, which face expanding losses and are expected to maintain low production schedules. In Indonesia, a major production area has adjusted its production pace to reduce operating loads, and high-grade nickel ore resources are currently tight, with declining grades in major production areas. Metal content is expected to decrease. On the demand side, stainless steel spot prices remained stable, with sluggish market transactions. Stainless steel mills, having previously restocked inventories and benefited from improved stainless steel scrap economics, have shown weakened demand for high-grade NPI. In the short term, the high-grade NPI market sentiment is expected to pull back, but prices are likely to remain relatively stable with a strong trend due to cost support and tight circulating resources.

Stainless Steel:

February 19, the stainless steel electronic SS2505 contract slightly rose, ending its consecutive downward trend. Spot prices remained stable. This week, the spot market is in a transitional period, with stable prices. Today, 304 cold-rolled in Wuxi was quoted at 12,950-13,350 yuan/mt, 304 HRC at 12,450-12,600 yuan/mt, 316L cold-rolled at 23,800-24,200 yuan/mt, 201J1 cold-rolled at 7,700-7,800 yuan/mt, and 430 cold-rolled at 7,300-7,450 yuan/mt. At 10:30 AM, the SHFE SS2505 contract price was 13,120 yuan/mt, with Wuxi stainless steel spot premiums ranging from 75 to 425 yuan/mt (spot trimmed edge = rough edge + 170 yuan/mt).